Predict the College Football Season: Week 1 – Everyone Else

Calm down everyone that isn’t an AAC or SEC fan.  I didn’t mean this title as anything derogatory towards your conference/team.  I really doubt the bot “reading” this will take any offense, just thought I should stick it out there.

I’ve decided that it’ll just be much easier to post the week’s poll every Monday around 7pm CST.  I’m hoping this will get greater responses since it’s the same poll during the entire week.  Right now, I’m still posting this only on 247Sports.com’s the Blue Board, and my Facebook.  Anyone and everyone is free to post this everywhere (well…duh..it’s the internet).

All of that out of the way, here is the link to the poll for the rest of week 1’s matchups:

Click This Linky

For those of you interested in how yesterday went, click here to see the results

Lastly, Here is the current win-loss records of everyone so far – if we are able to get the minimum 10 responses by Monday, I’ll update this and we’ll get our first overall win-loss sheet.

-Scott

Predict the College Football Season Week 1 – AAC

Prior to the 2013 season, someone on one of the Auburn message boards I frequent posted a smaller version.  Each day for the 2 weeks prior to the beginning of the season he posted a poll and asked people to choose whether or not Auburn would win the game.  I think the final prediction was 9-3, which was surpassed by our terrific 12-2 season.

Originally, I was just going to replicate this idea onto other Auburn message boards, and maybe do it for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Then, I got an idea.  Why not just do it for every team in one of the power 6 conferences?

I posted the Week 1 – SEC on the 247Sports.com Blue Board on June 3 to see if this would catch on.  I said I’d continue the project if I got 25 responses by 7pm CST June 4, I ended up with 27 or so.  Just enough to keep going.  I think I’ll keep doing this as long as I get 11 responses per day.  I don’t want to keep nagging people on message boards to participate in something only I care about.  If that dies, maybe I’ll just be a crazy person that polls themselves to see how my college football predicting skills are.

With all of that out of the way, here is the link to Week 1 – AAC:

Click Here to Answer Poll

It was pointed out that there are some bad mistakes in there.  Louisville is now in the ACC, not AAC.  Rutgers is also no longer in the AAC.  ECU, Tulane & Tulsa are all missing.  Regardless, please make your pick, and I’ll correct it in future polls.

If anyone is interested, you can see the results for Week 1 – SEC Here

Ok.  That’s all for today.  Maybe I’ll get the time to try and spread this around tomorrow.  In a perfect world, I could get hundreds of responses per day, instead of stressing about getting the minimum 10.  So, if you know of an outlet, please spread this.

-Scott

Which Sport Has the Most Draft Success?

As I’m sure none of you know, I’m a Tampa Bay Rays fan.  This team was supposed to be the best one Tampa had ever fielded.  It’s not looking like that will be the case.  With this bad season, everyone keeps complaining about how the Rays don’t draft hitters, or don’t develop hitters, or players in general, really.  The other thing tossed around is that the team should just tank to try and get a top pick.

These complaints started to get me thinking, which of the big 4 American professional sports leagues features the best success rate? Is a top pick really going to yield a good player?  I suppose success rate is measured by how long you play in your respective league.

What I’m doing is going back and looking at the first round of every draft (Thanks, Wikipedia) from each of the big 4 from 2000 to 2008.  From there, I’m looking at the career of each pick and putting that player into one of four categories.  Did Not Play (DNP) at the professional level, 1-3 years, 4-5 years, and 6+ years.  If the player played even one game for a team, that counts as one season.  Obviously, nowhere close to a perfect idea, but I’m just looking for a general idea here.  I also added another category to include players that have been selected to an All-Star team or All-League selection (i.e. All-Pro for NFL).  If the player makes either one (of both) of these during their career, it’s added.  Doesn’t matter if they’re a flash in the pan, or a 13x All-Star.

When I first started this I thought that would be enough categories, now I’ve entered only about 7 (3 for NBA, 1 each for NFL, NHL, & MLB) sections worth of data, and I’m already realizing that it’s not enough.  Alas, I’m too lazy to go back and change it.  This is mostly for my own measure, anyway since I’m sure this study has been done several times by far more reputable people.

I know it’s incredibly early, and I don’t have the data in front of me, but off the top of my head, noteworthy things are:

  • 2000 NFL Draft featured a ton of players that had extremely long careers, and made the Pro-Bowl
  • So far, the NBA is averaging a little more than 19 players per season that go 6+ years in the league.  This won’t be recorded, but two of the rounds I looked at had players still playing die.  It also seemed like foreign players would come, play in the NBA for a little, and for whatever reason (I didn’t want to assume they weren’t good enough for da leeg) go back and play in the foreign leagues.
  • 2000 MLB featured something like 45% of its draft picks never playing in the show.  Several minor league lifers, and one guy that was apparently drafted 5 times.  Adam Wainwright was in this draft.  I didn’t know he was that….seasoned.  Oh, and one guy named Boof.  Terrific name.
  • When I went through the 2000 NHL draft, I had no idea hockey players had such long careers.  SO many of the players in that draft are still on teams, or were on teams last season.

That’s all I’ve got this early into it.  I’ll post another article, along with the spreadsheet once I’m finished.

-Scott

 

Hello!

Hi there!  I’ve been thinking about creating a blog for a few years now, mostly to write about projects I’m working on.  Today I started a couple of projects and remembered that I had already purchased a domain and hosting for this several years ago and had yet to use it.  So, here we are.

Just an intro I guess.  My name is Scott.  I’m a recent graduate of Auburn University, and I am an Accountant.  The other person that I hope will join me on here is my Fiance.  Her name is Jane,  she also graduated from Auburn recently and she is an Actuary.  We live in Birmingham, Alabama and are both working full-time and studying for exams, CPA for me and Actuary for her.

Like I said, the main purpose of this blog will be to post projects I’ve been working on, or have completed.  These will range from things like analyzing sports, to computer related things, to cooking recipes we feel like we invented (but are probably found on hundreds of other sites), to general things we think are neat.

Sadly, there won’t be too many rednecky things posted on here, so I’m sorry for not following the guidance of the domain.  Now, with the intro out of the way, let’s get onto some projects!

 

-Scott

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